In the 235 days of 2015 that have gone by, America had 225 mass shootings—a statistic that fits a frightening pattern, according to new research presented at the 110th American Sociological Association Annual Meeting. According to this global study, the five countries with the highest gun ownership rates per capita also have some of the highest numbers of public mass shooters per capita.
“The United States, Yemen, Switzerland, Finland, and Serbia are ranked as the Top 5 countries in firearms owned per capita, according to the 2007 Small Arms Survey, and my study found that all five are ranked in the Top 15 countries in public mass shooters per capita,” said study author Adam Lankford, an associate professor of criminal justice at the University of Alabama, in a press release. “That is not a coincidence.”
The study examined multiple international sources involving 171 countries between the years 1966-2012, including the New York City Police Department’s 2012 active shooter report and the FBI’s 2014 active shooter report—while excluding incidents that occurred solely in domestic settings or were primarily gang-related, drive-by shootings, hostage taking incidents, or robberies.
“My study provides empirical evidence, based on my quantitative assessment of 171 countries, that a nation’s civilian firearm ownership rate is the strongest predictor of its number of public mass shooters,” Lankford said. “Until now, everyone was simply speculating about the relationship between firearms and public mass shootings. My study provides empirical evidence of a positive association between the two.”
All eyes on the US
The team focused extra attention on the U.S.—and determined that though it has only 5% of the world’s population, it has 31% of the mass shooters. American mass shooters are more likely to attack schools, factories, or office buildings; offenders abroad are more likely to select a military target. Further, mass shooters in other countries were 3.6 times less likely to have used multiple weapons (including more guns)—over half of American shooters used at least two.
“Given the fact that the United States has over 200 million more firearms in circulation than any other country, it’s not surprising that our public mass shooters would be more likely to arm themselves with multiple weapons than foreign offenders,” Lankford said. “I was surprised, however, that the average number of victims killed by each shooter was actually higher in other countries (8.81 victims) than it was in the United States (6.87 victims) because so many horrific attacks have occurred here.”
The exact reason for this is unknown, but Langford suggested it might be a side-effect of having so many mass shootings: US law enforcement receives more and better training in how to handle these shootings.
So what now?
According to Lankford, “The most obvious implication is that the United States could likely reduce its number of school shootings, workplace shootings, and public mass shootings in other places if it reduced the number of guns in circulation.”
A controversial idea to be sure, but there is evidence that such an approach could work, according to Lankford. “From 1987-1996, four public mass shootings occurred in Australia,” he said. “Just 12 days after a mass shooter killed 35 people in the last of these attacks, Australia agreed to pass comprehensive gun control laws. It also launched a major buyback program that reduced Australia’s total number of firearms by 20 percent. My study shows that in the wake of these policies, Australia has yet to experience another public mass shooting.”
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